Service Plays Sunday 07/05/09

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Cappers Access

Marlins(RL)
Rangers

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Today's MLB Picks

Arizona at Colorado

The Diamondbacks look to build on their 5-1 record in Dan Haren's last 6 road starts when the total is set between 7 and 8 1/2 runs. Arizona is the pick (+110) according to Dunkel, which has the Diamondbacks favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+110). Here are all of today's picks.

SUNDAY, JULY 5

Game 901-902: St. Louis at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Carpenter) 15.820; Cincinnati (Arroyo) 13.850
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 2; 7
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-160); 8
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-160); Under
Game 903-904: Pittsburgh at Florida
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Ohlendorf) 15.928; Florida (Nolasco) 14.407
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Florida (-170); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+160); Under
Game 905-906: NY Mets at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Santana) 13.552; Philadelphia (Blanton) 15.000
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-110); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-110); Over
Game 907-908: Atlanta at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Lowe) 16.249; Washington (Olsen) 14.897
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-145); 9
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-145); Under
Game 909-910: Milwaukee at Chicago Cubs
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Burns) 15.277; Cubs (Lilly) 14.720
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-170); No Run Line
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+160); N/A
Game 911-912: Arizona at Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Haren) 16.084; Colorado (Jimenez) 14.516
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Colorado (-120); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+110); Over
Game 913-914: LA Dodgers at San Diego
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Billingsley) 13.969; San Diego (Banks) 15.412
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-170); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+160); Under
Game 915-916: Houston at San Francisco
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Oswalt) 14.937; San Francisco (Johnson) 16.514
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Houston (-115); 8
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+105); Over
Game 917-918: Toronto at NY Yankees
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Cecil) 15.275; NY Yankees (Chamberlain) 17.293
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 2; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-185); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-185); Over
Game 919-920: Oakland at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Anderson) 14.020; Cleveland (Lee) 15.234
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-230); 9
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-230); Under
Game 921-922: Seattle at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Morrow) 16.620; Boston (Lester) 15.674
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Boston (-270); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+240); Over
Game 923-924: Detroit at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Porcello) 14.572; Minnesota (Blackburn) 16.205
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-145); 9
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-145); Over
Game 925-926: Chicago White Sox at Kansas City
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Richard) 16.119; Kansas City (Bannister) 14.405
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Kansas City (-120); 9
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (+110); Over
Game 927-928: Baltimore at LA Angels
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Hill) 14.753; LA Angels (Saunders) 15.826
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-175); 10
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-175); Under
Game 929-930: Tampa Bay at Texas
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Niemann) 15.366; Texas (Feldman) 16.389
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-130); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas (+120); Over

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Arthur Ralph Sports

37-19 run on Bonus Plays

SUN Toronto Blue Jays

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Joe Wiz Bonus Play

Ariz/ Col Under

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

E.B.B.

Houston Astros (-104) over San Francisco Giants (1.0 Units) -

There was a 31-7, +18 units systems yesterday that said to go for the Giants because they won the first game by double digits. But now that they've won the game, the tied has turned towards the Astros.

Teams that were shut out in the first two games of a series bounce back in the third game with a vengeance... but only if they are not huge dogs. When they are favorite or a dog of less than 130, these teams are 16-6, +11 units... with only 1 losing season.

----------------------------
San Diego Padres (150) over Los Angeles Dodgers (1.0 Units) -
The Padres are always a good value as a home dog against these Dodgers. And for the same reason we took them in Games 1 and 2, we'll take them today.

----------------------------

Chicago White Sox (109) over Kansas City Royals (1.0 Units) -
Despite losing yesterday, the White Sox are still the team on an offensive roll. Just one game does not reverse the fortunes of these Royals. And so we'll take the White Sox for pretty much the same reasons as we took them yesterday.

----------------------------

Colorado Rockies (-104) over Arizona Diamondbacks (1.0 Units) -

The Rockies play about the same at home as they do on the road... but their pitcher today is a total homer pitcher. Whe pitches at home, the Rockies are 4-2 but are a paltry 2-8 when he pitches on the road.

Since this series is tied 1-1, we know that the winner of this game wins the series. And the advantage will undoubtedly go to the home team if they have a homer pitcher but mostly if their odds are not already inflated because they are at home. And since these Rockies do not have the greatest of records at home, we know their odds are not inflated today.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Hondo

July 5, 2009

Hondo started his Fourth off with a bang yesterday when he made some noise with the Brewers but fin ished with a dud by the Metamucils, leaving him with a wad totaling 125 woodlings.

Today, Mr. Aitch will switch dugouts and just say no to Jo' -- 10 units on Blanton and the Phillies.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Kosmo

NY Mets -105 1 unit
Giants -105 1 unit
Detroit +130 1 unit

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Prof8T covers Run Line Chase System
Current Record 41-1

7-5-09
BOS (Game 2)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

WNBA

Atlanta at Indiana

The Fever look to build on their 7-0 ATS record in their last 7 games overall. Indiana is the pick (-9) according to Dunkel, which has the Fever favored by 11 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Indiana (-9)

Game 601-602: Connecticut at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Connecticut 112.682; Detroit 111.557
Dunkel Line & Total: Connecticut by 1; 138 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Detroit by 3; 144 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Connecticut (+3); Under

Game 603-604: Atlanta at Indiana
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 107.276; Indiana 118.684
Dunkel Line & Total: Indiana by 11 1/2; 145 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Indiana by 9; 148 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Indiana (-9); Under

Game 605-606: Phoenix at Los Angeles
Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 109.072; Los Angeles 120.753
Dunkel Line & Total: Los Angeles by 11 1/2; 177
Vegas Line & Total: Los Angeles by 6; 169 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (-6); Over

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

THE SPORTS ADVISORS

N.Y. Mets (39-41) at Philadelphia (41-37)

The freefalling Mets send ace Johan Santana (9-6, 3.34 ERA) to the mound as they try to avoid getting swept in a three-game series against the rival Phillies, who will counter with Joe Blanton (4-4, 5.08) at Citizens Bank Park.

Philadelphia followed up Friday’s 7-2 series-opening victory with Saturday’s 4-1 triumph. Despite the results the last two days, the Phillies are just 5-15 in their last 20 contests, dropping eight of 11 at home during this slump. On the bright side, the defending champs are on runs of 23-11 against southpaw starters and 66-31 on Sunday.

New York has now dropped seven of its last nine and is 11-20 since the start of June, including 6-12 on the road. The Mets are on further slides of 3-11 on Sunday, 1-7 against winning teams and 1-5 versus right-handed starters.

New York won four of the first five series matchups against Philadelphia this season, but the Phillies have now taken the last four in a row.

After two straight strong outings (three earned runs allowed in 14 1/3 innings), Santana got rocked in his most recent start at Milwaukee on Tuesday, surrendering six runs (five earned) on nine hits and four walks in six innings, losing 6-3. The veteran southpaw has a 9.74 ERA in his last five starts. Still, New York is 19-8 in Santana’s last 27 trips to the mound, including 9-4 in his last 13 versus divisional foes.

Santana is 3-4 with a 5.18 ERA in seven games on the road this season and 4-0 with a 2.95 ERA in eight career starts against the Phillies, including 2-0 with a 3.21 ERA in two contests this year. In fact, the Mets are unbeaten in Santana’s last four starts against Philadelphia.

Philly is winless in Blanton’s last five starts, including Tuesday’s 5-4 loss at Atlanta in which the portly right-hander gave up three runs on eight hits in five innings. Despite the recent slump behind Blanton, the Phillies are still on runs of 9-4 at home, 10-4 against the N.L. East and 5-0 on Sunday when the veteran pitches. Also, Blanton has surrendered three earned runs or fewer in six of his last seven outings.

Blanton is 1-2 with a 6.05 ERA in seven starts at Citizens Bank this year, but 1-0 with a 2.14 ERA in three career starts against New York.

The under is on runs of 7-2 for the Mets in N.L. East contests, 5-2 for the Mets against right-handed starters, 5-1-2 for Philadelphia overall and 11-5-1 for Philadelphia against lefty starters. However, the over is 4-1 in Santana’s last five starts against the Phillies and 4-2-1 in the last seven head-to-head clashes at Citizens Bank.

ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. METS


Tampa Bay (44-38) at Texas (44-35)

Matt Garza (6-5, 3.45) goes after his third consecutive victory when he leads the Rays against Scott Feldman (6-2, 4.09) and the Rangers in the nationally televised finale of a three-game series at Rangers Ballpark.

Texas is looking for the series sweep tonight after topping Tampa Bay 3-1 on Friday and 12-4 on Saturday. The Rangers have won four in a row – all at home – and the run comes on the heels of a 3-8 slump. The Rangers are 19-7 in their last 26 home games against opponents with a losing road mark, but they’ve dropped four of their last five on Sunday.

The Rays have followed up a seven-game winning streak by losing three in a row. Still, Tampa Bay has won six of seven against right-handed starters and six of nine against winning teams. However, it is now 9-20 in its last 29 games against Texas in Rangers Ballpark.

Garza has given up a single run in each of his last two starts, scattering 10 hits and six walks over 15 combined innings, beating the Phillies 7-1 at home and the Blue Jays 4-1 on the road. Prior to this recent run, the right-hander had completed seven innings just once in his seven previous starts, and the Rays were 1-4 in his previous five outings.

Garza is 2-3 with a 3.80 ERA in seven road starts this season, but 3-1 with a 1.98 ERA in four career starts against the Rangers.

Feldman has gotten 18 runs of support in his last two starts, with Texas winning both games by scores of 9-8 at Arizona and 9-5 against the Angels at home Tuesday. Feldman surrendered three runs in six innings in each of those contests, and the right-hander has yielded three earned runs or fewer in 10 of his 12 starts this season.

Texas is 8-3 in Feldman’s last 11 starts overall, but they’re 5-12 in his last 17 home outings and 1-4 in his last five Sunday contests. This season, Feldman is 2-1 with a 3.91 ERA in seven starts at Rangers Ballpark, and he’s 1-1 with a 3.00 ERA in five career appearances (one start) against Tampa Bay.

With Feldman on the hill, the “under” is on streaks of 27-11 overall, 7-1 at home, 4-1 on Sunday and 9-1 against the A.L. East. Also, the under is 11-4-1 in Garza’s 16 starts this season, including 7-0 in his last seven trips to the hill. Additionally, all seven of Garza’s road starts in 2009 have stayed low, and his three starts against Texas last year played to the under.

As a team, Tampa Bay is on “under” runs of 6-1 overall (4-1 on the road), 5-1 against winning teams, 16-5-1 against right-handed starters and 4-1 on Sunday. Similarly, the Rangers carry “under” trends of 37-15-1 overall, 20-7-1 at home, 7-1 against the A.L. East, 22-8-1 against right-handed starters, 13-3-1 against righties at home and 14-3-1 on Sunday. Lastly, the under is 5-2 in the last seven Rays-Rangers battles, all in Texas.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

RatedPicks MLB 7/5
MLB:
*BP* Chicago WhiteSox/KC Royals UNDER 9
*BP* Texas Rangers +115

Regular Small Card
Detroit Tigers +150
D'Backs/Rockies OVER 8.5

 

[yanks84]

Lou Panelli

20* MLB Atlanta under 9.5(100 Dime VEGAS KEY INFO)
10* MLB Reds under 8
10* MLB Florida over 8.5
10* MLB Boston -1.5 -125
10* MLB Detroit +110
10* MLB Tampa Bay -130

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Erin Rynning

under twins/playmaker

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

FYI - AROD resting today

 

[Yanks]

Wayne Root

Chairman- Tampa Bay
Milionaire- Philly
Billionaire- San Fran

 

[brady1983]

Indian Cowboy

4 Unit Play.

Take Under 10 between the Baltimore Orioles @ LA Angels (Sunday @ 3:30pm est).

Let's take a shot on Rich Hill today putting together a quality start. Rich has been struggling lately as he has given up 13 runs in less than 8 innings over his last two starts. But given the fact he is facing the Angels and he is likely to get up for this team in my opinion after two straight non-quality starts. I believe he likely gets his stuff together as usually he does not put forth 3 straight non-quality starts - back to back to back. Having tracked Rich this season, he rarely pitches in 3 straight overs as well and he comes off back to back overs. What makes this Under nice in another element as well is that Joe Saunders, the Virginia Tech alum, is coming off one of his worst starts of the year giving up 8 runs in less than 4 innings as the Angels lost to the Rangers. That loss propelled his era up to 4.24 and I expect him to likely have a strong outing today as well. The Last time he gave up 7 or more runs to another team (Texas again) he went into Seattle and gave up 0 runs on 4 hits in 7 innings. I look for this game to likely dip under today as the Under is 5-1 in Rich's last 6 starts as a road underdog and the Under is 4-0-1 for Saunders following an outing of less than 4 innings in his last appearance.


4 Unit Play.

Detroit -2 over Connecticut (Sunday @ 6pm est).

We are going to keep these write-ups a bit more succinct today. The Shock come off an ugly loss to NY on the road losing 64-80 as they look to bounce-back at home. This team has shown bite at home in their limited number of wins as both home wins come against the Sparks and Monarchs at home. Bear in mind that Conn too comes off a loss but they are 1-2 on the road and we will roll with the home team here as Detroit will likely step up here with Ford, Nolan and McWilliams-Franklin.


4 Unit Play.

Indiana -9 over Atlanta (Sunday @ 6pm est).

Indiana has huge revenge against the Dream from an overtime win earlier this year - and that was when they were not playing well. This is part of the reason why they are laying such a huge number as with the revenge + home court, plus riding a 7-0 ATS streak as well as a 7-0 SU win streak, makes for a fairly large spread today. Either way, the Fever have just beat the Sun by 14 at home, the Shock by 12 at home and the Sparks by 12, so this spread is not all that high for a Fever covery imo - especially given that the Dream beat them in overtime this year.


4 Unit Play.

Take LA Sparks -6.5 over Phoenix Mercury (Sunday @ 9:30pm est)

Speaking of revenge, the Sparks have that against the Mercury today as well. The Sparks lost 80-89 on the road in their last game, but as they have revenge + home court, they should do very well today. Remember, the Mercury are not all that dandy on the road as they are 1-3 on the highway and I love the fact they come off a big win over the Storm at home. The Sparks are playing great defense right now and Staples is one of the best home court advantages in the league. This is the same arena where the Sparks played the Storm after coming off a bucket loss to them and railed them by a score of 82-55. You don't think the Sparks will be looking to dominate with such revenge against the Mercury at home today as well? I do. Let's roll with the Sparks, with revenge, home court and looking to get to 4-5 on the year while they wait for the return of their star in Candace Parker.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Free Silver Key Pick for Sunday ML Baseball

TEXAS FELDMAN -R +1.5 Runs, -140 Over Tampa Bay (8:05 et)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Scott Ferrall

MLB FREE PICKS FOR SUNDAY PICKS ARE IN ALL CAPS AND RANKED IN ORDER OF CONFIDENCE ( )

DODGERS (BILLINGSLEY) -155 (1)
San Diego (Banks)

DETROIT (PORCELLO) +140 (2)
Minnesota (Blackburn)

PITTSBURGH (OHLENDORF) +160 (3)
Florida (Nolasco)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Gina's MLB Selections

Arizona Diamondbacks (32-49) vs. Colorado Rockies (42-38)
D.Haren (R) v. U.Jimenez(R)
This game is a fight between division rivals. The last time out the Diamondbacks beat the Rockies 11-7 on Saturday. Look for more of the same with DanHaren (7-5) to take this Arizona team over the Rockies in the division.

Oddsmakers currently have the Rockies listed as 115 favorites
Arizona Diamondbacks -105